In Pursuit of the "Near Win Effect" in Non-problem Gamblers

Abstract

A “Near Win” (NW) is a specific combination of symbols in poker machines; a sequence of symbols that match but the final symbol differs (e.g., XXXY). Although a NW results in a loss, NWs are thought to encourage gambling because they appear to come close to a win (the NW Effect). Research has shown that NWs encourage gambling persistence and that gamblers prefer poker machines programmed with NWs. The present research investigated the effect of NWs amongst non-problem gamblers. Experiments 1 to 4 investigated participants’ preference across two poker-machine games, one programmed with NWs and the other without NWs. No significant preference for the NW game emerged. In Experiments 5 and 6, participants either played a poker-machine game programmed with NWs or a poker-machine game on which no NWs occurred and the number of trials played before the participants chose to finish was compared across the two games. The number of trials played on the games did not differ significantly. Despite using a variety of procedures, none of the six experiments found any evidence for a NW Effect. In light of these results, the evidence for the NW Effect was re-examined.